In the April 2019 general elections in Israel, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was elected to form a coalition government. However, he was unable to do so and has called for new elections in September 2019. Why has Mr Netanyahu opted for another election?
Background
Israel’s ballot is based on a system of proportional representation, with the electoral threshold set at 3.25%; the number of Knesset (parliament) seats a party receives is directly proportional to the number of votes it receives. The Knesset is elected for a four-year term and is comprised of 120 seats, which makes securing 61 seat majority the central goal of political parties. As a multi-party state with fragmented demographic factors, Israel has never seen a single-party majority government, making coalition politics an important electoral consideration. Approximately 5.88 million people comprise the current electorate, with fourteen main political factions vying for their vote.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition secured enough votes in the April 2019 general elections. Analysts expected Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party to ally with similar-minded right-wing parties.
Analysis
Minutes before a deadline to form a coalition government passed, the Knesset voted to dissolve. This Knesset was voted into office in April 2019. A new ballot is set for September 17, 2019, and will be Israel’s second general elections of the year. It indicates significant upheaval in a country used to political infighting.
Mr Netanyahu was unable to form a government after a feud between presumed allies. The disagreement was between former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. Both groupings are essential if Mr Netanyahu is to form a government. Mr Lieberman is a far-right secularist whose views are typically aligned with Mr Netanyahu’s Likud. Ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties represent a significant number of Mr Netanyahu’s base. Without Mr Lieberman’s support, Mr Netanyahu has 60 seats, one shy of the amount required to form a government.
The dispute between Mr Lieberman’s party and the ultra-Orthodox revolves around conscription. Israel’s lack of strategic geographic depth, small population and perception that enemies surround it, leads the country to develop a robust defence force. To aid this effort, every Israeli is required to serve in the country’s defence forces, the IDF. This service is mandatory and primarily seen as a matter of pride. However, ultra-Orthodox Jews, whose males spend most of their time studying the Torah, resist this mandate. Mr Lieberman strongly supports a bill that would require ultra-Orthodox men studying the Torah to participate in the country’s military conscription. He believes every Israeli should share in the military service. The ultra-Orthodox have demanded that Mr Netanyahu modify the bill, while Mr Lieberman refuses to join a coalition government unless the proposed legislation stays in its current form.
The issue is indicative of a more significant problem in Israel. Mr Lieberman and other secular conservatives have opposed the growing influence of the ultra-Orthodox in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.
While Mr Netanyahu continues to be politically popular in Israel, there have been voices opposing his iron grip on government that prevents any other group from forming a government. Mr Netanyahu tried to salvage his chances at creating a government by making overtures to opposition groups. According to Haaretz, he even attempted a compromise with Mr Lieberman, which was refused. Centrist parties are unlikely to join Mr Netanyahu due to several bribery and corruption charges currently levied against him. If Mr Netanyahu did not act before the deadline, Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin would likely have then called upon a leader from another party to form a government.
For Mr Netanyahu staying in power is critical. He and his family members face charges or bribery and fraud. Mr Netanyahu had been counting on allies in his government to help pass a law that would grant him immunity from prosecution while in office. Such a proposal is unlikely to gain traction before the September elections.
The snap election also has geopolitical implications. The US-Israeli partnership has grown since Mr Trump assumed office. The US was expected to release a Middle East peace plan after April’s elections. The proposal would require strong Israeli support; with new elections on the horizon, the plan is unlikely to be unveiled until after September.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Prime Minister Netanyahu will not be able to pass the planned legislation aimed at protecting himself from prosecution. We feel that Lieberman, despite his qualms being entirely valid, has chosen this specific time to refrain from a coalition with the rest of the right-wing bloc with the long-term vision to break Netanyahu’s decade-long monopoly over the prime ministership. Even if Netanyahu manages to amass an elusive majority in the September snap elections, it is our firm belief that the two weeks between the election and his hearing will not be adequate him to make the required legal adjustments through the Knesset to safeguard himself from the attorney general’s potentially damnatory hearing.
In a nutshell, unless he is indeed innocent, it is improbable that Netanyahu will stay out of prison, let alone begin another term at the helm of the Jewish State given the sheer gravity of the charges against him.
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Image Courtesy – איציק אדרי [CC BY 2.5 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5)]
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