China is looking to unseat US influence on the Philippines as President Xi landed in Manila just hours after the APEC Summit concluded in Papua New Guinea. The relationship between the United States and the Philippines has historically been strong and has been described as a Special Relationship…
China is looking to unseat US influence on the Philippines as President Xi landed in Manila just hours after the APEC Summit concluded in Papua New Guinea.
Background
The relationship between the United States and the Philippines has historically been strong and has been described as a Special Relationship. The current Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, however, is supportive of a foreign policy that is less dependent on the United States, favouring one that prioritizes closer relations with China instead. The Philippines is one of the oldest Asian partners of the U.S. and a strategically major non-NATO ally.
94 per cent Filipinos have confidence in former United States president Barack Obama, making the Philippines the most pro-American country in the world.
However, under the Trump administration and under President Duterte, the Philippines seems to be steering away from the sole influence of the US and pursuing a more independent foreign policy.
Analysis
Xi swept into the Philippines on Tuesday as the first Chinese leader to make a state visit in 13 years. He laid a wreath at a monument to a Philippine nationalist martyr before signing dozens of agreements, including a significant oil and gas exploration deal in the contested South China Sea. Xi’s visit to the Philippines encapsulates how South East Asia and the Pacific have become ground zero in the accelerating contest for global influence between Beijing and Washington.
“China and the Philippines are close neighbors with a thousand-year history of exchange, good-neighborliness, friendship,” Xi said at the opening of bilateral meetings Tuesday, “and cooperation is our only correct choice.”
The stakes are high in Manila, where Xi is seeking this week to win over President Rodrigo Duterte with generous investments while having to contend with a Philippine military that remains close to the United States and eager to nurture relations with Washington.
When Xi and Duterte announced a deal Tuesday that will pave the way for joint exploration for oil and gas in the South China Sea, it represented the culmination of a turnaround for two countries that were locked in bitter territorial disputes for years before Duterte took power in 2016.
President Duterte first visited Beijing in 2016, stunning the world by turning his ire toward the United States and promising to find in Xi a new, steady partner who could provide billions of dollars in investments. He has doubled down on that rhetoric, promising to shelve a landmark ruling on the South China Sea between the two countries that negate China’s historical claims to the waters.
On the side-lines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Singapore, he accused the United States of stoking tensions with ongoing war games and naval drills in the waters of Southeast Asia. The U.S. Navy conducted drills last week in the Philippine Sea, in international waters east of the Philippines.
China is “already in possession” of the contested South China Sea waters, Duterte told reporters. “China is there. That’s a reality, and America and everybody should realize that they are there.”
The trade-off, Duterte hopes, will be more investments. Of the more than two dozen agreements signed between the two countries Tuesday, many related to infrastructure, including in Davao City, where Duterte was mayor before becoming president.
Counterpoint
Many Philippine officials say they have no choice but to take Chinese investment, and by extension, accept greater Chinese influence. They are puzzled by why so few countries — including, crucially, the United States — have been willing to help in the way that China has – in a country that badly needs infrastructure improvements.
There has been Chinese, Japanese and Indian investment in airports, subways and the telecommunications sector. However, Philippine Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez said he was “surprised” that American bidders have not come forward.
Assessment
Our assessment is that China’s aggressive push in South East Asia through this new “charm offensive” is a serious threat to American influence in the region. We believe that Washington must act proactively if it wants to check China’s rapidly growing regional influence. We also feel that the US-led Quad program for investments to counter the OBOR could be an effective tool if used properly.
Leave a Reply