The Maldives new president, Mohamed Solih, has promised an “India first” policy in the Maldives. Modi assured Solih of India’s firm commitment to assist the Maldives to achieve sustainable social and economic development. The Republic of Maldives is a South Asian country located in the Indian Ocean..
The Maldives new president, Mohamed Solih, has promised an “India first” policy in the Maldives. Modi assured Solih of India’s firm commitment to assist the Maldives to achieve sustainable social and economic development.
Background
The Republic of Maldives is a South Asian country located in the Indian Ocean, situated in the Arabian Sea. It lies southwest of Sri Lanka and India. The Indian Ocean archipelago known for its luxury resorts became a multiparty democracy in 2008.
In 2013, Abdulla Yameen was elected president of the Maldives. Since then, he had cracked down on political dissent, jailing rivals and Supreme Court justices. Presidential elections were held in the Maldives on 23 September 2018. Incumbent president Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives sought re-election for a second five-year term. His only challenger was Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party, who was nominated as the joint candidate of a coalition of opposition parties.
The result was a surprise victory for Solih, who received over 58% of the vote and was elected as the seventh President of the Maldives. He is due to assume office on 17 November 2018. Solih is the country’s third democratically-elected president since Mohamed Nasheed’s defeat of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the 2008 elections ended the latter’s 30-year incumbency.
The surprise defeat of pro-China Abdulla Yameen has opened a window for India, the strategic outpost’s traditional political partner, to regain ground that was previously lost to Beijing in their tussle for regional dominance. Neighboring India had been concerned by a growing Chinese influence under Yameen, who signed a series of infrastructure projects with Beijing.
Analysis
Ibrahim Mohamed Solih took over as president of the Maldives on 17 November following fierce political discord caused by the autocratic rule of outgoing leader Yameen Abdul Gayoom. Chief Justice Abdulla Didi administered the oath of office to the 54-year-old Solih at a swearing-in ceremony.
In his speech after the ceremony, Solih said the Maldives was in a precarious financial situation owing to “reckless development projects”, and appealed for help from foreign countries and international organisations to stabilise the economy. Under Yameen, Beijing loaned an estimated $1.5bn to the Maldives to fund an upgrade of the country’s main international airport as well as massive housing projects in a new population centre. In March, the US-based Center for Global Development identified the Maldives as one of eight countries subject to high debt distress because of investments from China.
Ibrahim Ameer, Solih’s choice for the crucial post of finance minister, said he was worried about the debt and said the country needs up to $300m in budgetary support immediately. The Maldives is now in talks with India, the United States and Saudi Arabia for assistance, the newly appointed minister said. Meanwhile, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already pledged help. Modi was the top foreign dignitary to attend the ceremony and is trying to reset bilateral ties that suffered during Yameen’s rule.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the highest ranking visitor at the inauguration in the capital Male. China’s highest-ranking attendee was the Culture and Tourism Minister Luo Shugang. Modi’s presence signals the end of years of frosty relations because of Yameen’s embrace of China, a relationship that had deepened India’s anxieties about being encircled by countries leaning towards Beijing. In Sri Lanka, an island nation to the southeast of India, the rivalry between New Delhi and Beijing has been one of the triggers for a political crisis in recent weeks.
The debt of $1.5 billion would be more than a quarter of the country’s annual gross domestic product. A member of the incoming president’s economic team said firm proposals for assistance had been discussed with Indian and U.S. officials.
Sensing an opportunity, India has told Solih’s team that it stands ready to help, say Indian government officials in New Delhi and Maldivian authorities in Male.
India had provided a $75 million credit line some years ago, of which a third had been utilised before the diplomatic chill set in with the previous administration. India has had a long-standing defence cooperation agreement with the Maldives, providing coastal security and patrols of its exclusive economic zone. But Yameen saw such co-operation as a cover for surveillance and had asked India to withdraw two military helicopters along with 50 military personnel this year.
The Indians had refused and now officials in Delhi said they expected the visas of the personnel involved in the operations to be renewed. There is also a currency swap agreement between the Reserve Bank of India and the Maldives Monetary Authority that could help maintain financial stability.
Assessment
Our assessment is that the election of president Solih is an opportunity for India to re-establish its strength in the region. We believe the restoration of relations between the two maritime partners will be a priority for both India and the Maldives. However, we do not expect that Beijing will take kindly to being sidelined by a country it has invested in so heavily.
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