Israel’s Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman has officially resigned and his party is leaving the coalition. Lieberman’s party, Yisrael Beiteinu, is no longer part of PM Netanyahu’s governing coalition, leaving the prime minister with a razor-thin majority of just 61 votes. The state of Israel was formed on 14 May 1948, to…
Israel’s Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman has officially resigned and his party is leaving the coalition. Lieberman’s party, Yisrael Beiteinu, is no longer part of PM Netanyahu’s governing coalition, leaving the prime minister with a razor-thin majority of just 61 votes.
Background
The state of Israel was formed on 14 May 1948, to be a home to the Jewish diaspora across the world. The war in 1967, fought between Israel and the neighbouring states of Egypt (known at the time as the United Arab Republic), Jordan, and Syria, left Israel in control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, two territories that are home to large Palestinian populations. These two areas have been the site of extreme conflict between Israeli troops and Palestinian militant groups since the 1967 war.
Israel left Gaza in 2005 but soon after, Hamas was elected in Gaza. Hamas, called a terrorist organisation by several countries, refuses to recognise Israel’s statehood and demands Palestinians be allowed to regain occupancy of Israel. They have been known to advocate for violence as a means to achieve their ends. Since Hamas came to power, Israel has held Gaza under a blockade. On 11 November, Israel and Gaza exchanged fire in a battle that killed a Hamas commander.
Eight people were killed over the next two days as militants fired 460 rockets towards Israel and Israeli forces bombed 160 targets in Gaza in the worst escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip since a 2014 war between Israel and Hamas.
The escalation of violence threatened to upend weeks of UN and Egyptian-led diplomacy to reach a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. On 13 November, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire mediated by Egypt and the United Nations after two days of fighting. The ceasefire was approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite opposition from some members of his Security Cabinet.
Analysis
On 14 November, Israel got a new defence minister: Benjamin Netanyahu. He took the title after former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman resigned in protest over Netanyahu’s policies, including his decision to accept a cease-fire after intense clashes between Israel and Hamas as well as other Palestinian militants. Netanyahu is already Israel’s prime minister, foreign minister and communications chief.
At a news conference in Jerusalem, former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman said the military response to the rocket fire had been “insufficient and inappropriate”. He added that the government was making a serious mistake by accepting a ceasefire with Hamas and other militant groups that Israel, the US, EU and UK have designated as terrorist organisations. “We are buying quiet for the short term at the price of serious damage to national security in the long term” he warned.
This announcement by Mr. Lieberman was expected. He has called for tough Israeli military action against Hamas and opposed ongoing efforts by Egypt and the UN to secure a long-term ceasefire deal that would quieten the Israel-Gaza border. His hawkish stance as defence minister has often left him at odds with senior military leaders but plays out well with the voter base of his political party.
Lieberman’s resignation is slowly turning into a crisis in the country’s governing coalition. Lieberman will return to the Knesset as a member, but his party, Yisrael Beiteinu, is no longer part of Netanyahu’s governing coalition. The decision to withdraw Yisrael Beiteinu from the coalition government weakens Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who now controls just 61 of 120 parliamentary seats.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, Likud, said he can handle taking on the responsibilities of defence minister as well. His right-wing coalition technically can survive without the five seats held by Yisrael Beiteinu, Lieberman’s party. However, Minister of Education Naftali Bennett was set on being given the defence ministry post, and has given Netanyahu an ultimatum: officials from Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s party, Beit Hayehudi, have told Israeli press that unless he is given the defence ministry portfolio, he will pull his party out of the coalition.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a difficult conundrum: without Beit Hayehudi, Netanyahu’s fourth government will collapse, but backing down from peace efforts could result in the conflict with Gaza escalating into a full-scale war. We believe that Lieberman’s resignation may have triggered a series of events that could lead to an early election and a potential loss of power for the long-ruling prime minister. We feel that Netanyahu was right to diffuse tensions with Gaza through the cease-fire, but that he must focus on creating consensus within his coalition. Failure to resolve the conflict within his own country could have disastrous consequences.
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