The upcoming United States Midterm Elections are being closely followed around the world. The results of the elections have the potential to dramatically alter the United States trade and foreign policies. While many in the European Union hope to see President Trump’s position weakened…
The upcoming United States Midterm Elections are being closely followed around the world. The results of the elections have the potential to dramatically alter the United States trade and foreign policies. While many in the European Union hope to see President Trump’s position weakened, a Democrat victory could be contrary to their interests.
Background
The United States of America has a bicameral legislature, which means legislators are divided into two separate assemblies or houses. The United States House of Representatives is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, the Senate being the upper chamber. Midterm elections in the United States are the general elections held in November every four years, near the midpoint of a president’s four-year term of office. Federal offices that are up for election during the midterms are members of the United States Congress, including all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate. On 6 November 2018, 35 seats in the Senate and the governorships in 36 states are on the ballot. All members of the US House of Representatives will face re-election.
The House of Representatives is vital for forming and passing bills through the US Government.
Bills are introduced and then voted on in the chamber and are later passed to the Senate for official assent before they reach the President. A majority of votes in the House are required for them to be passed.
Midterm elections have traditionally strengthened the opposition party in the United States.
Analysis
The 6 November midterm elections have attracted an unprecedented amount of international attention. The results will likely affect how President Trump is perceived by other world leaders. A strong showing for Republicans would help Trump push more forcefully for changes in how the US deals with EU and NATO allies. He might challenge the Chinese more emphatically on economic trade issues or territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
If the Democrats take the House, the Senate, or both – the president’s position would be weakened. His administration could be virtually paralyzed by all the investigations the Democrats are expected to bring if they regain power. Trump’s counterparts in other world capitals, from Moscow to Paris, would be emboldened to further their own self-interests at the expense of the American President preoccupied with problems at home.
Many in the EU hope that the vote will weaken US President Donald Trump. However, experts say that could prove dangerous internationally. They wonder whether President Trump will tweak his foreign policy should the Democrats win partial control of the legislature next week.
Elmar Brok, the former chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs and a member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats said that it would be good for “checks and balances” for the Democrats to win control of at least one chamber of the bicameral legislature, most likely the House of Representatives. He acknowledged that such an outcome could have a downside: “President Trump would then concentrate entirely on foreign policy because he would no longer be able to push through any domestic reforms. That could make us even more nervous.”
The president’s attitude toward the European Union is clear. In trade matters, he regards the EU as an “enemy” of the US. The president’s realignment of US trade policy has resulted in fiery clashes with the leaders of almost all industrialized countries worldwide. After Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium, he began threatening the European Union with punitive duties on cars as a measure to protect US automakers. Those tariffs would hit Germany especially hard.
The power to repeal legislature also lies with the party in control of the house of representatives. A Democrat win could see a reversal of deregulatory policies such as Trump’s decision to quit the Paris agreement.
Counterpoint
While a Democratic Congress would be able to slow President Trump’s deregulatory efforts, it won’t be able to stop them, because the president is adept at accomplishing many of his goals through executive actions.
Assessment
Our assessment is that regardless of which party wins the house of representatives and the Senate, the European Union will not be able to repair its trade and diplomatic relations with the United States without convincing the President that they bring enough to the table to warrant warmer negotiations. We believe a win for the Democrats would not necessarily ease tensions in the emerging Trans -Atlantic trade war, as Democrats have been inclined to protectionism themselves, and have limited power to overrule executive orders.
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