Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Wednesday that if the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Europe, Russia will have to target the nations that would host them.
The US had announced its intention to withdraw from the INF treaty and possibly deploy its medium range intercontinental ballistic..
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Wednesday that if the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Europe, Russia will have to target the nations that would host them.
The US had announced its intention to withdraw from the INF treaty and possibly deploy its medium range intercontinental ballistic missiles in mainland Europe.
Background
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) is the abbreviated name of the Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, a 1987 agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union (and later its successor states, in particular the Russian Federation). Signed in Washington, D.C. by President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev on 8 December 1987, the treaty was ratified by the United States Senate on 27 May 1988 and came into force on 1 June 1988.
The INF Treaty eliminated all nuclear and conventional missiles, as well as their launchers, with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometres (310–620 mi) (short-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 mi) (intermediate-range). The treaty did not cover sea-launched missiles. By May 1991, 2,692 missiles were eliminated, followed by 10 years of on-site verification inspections.
On October 21st, US President Donald Trump announced the US’s intention to withdraw from the INF treaty and committed to the development of new nuclear weapons systems.
Analysis
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Wednesday that if the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles in Europe, Russia will have to target the nations that would host them.
The stern statement follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he intends to opt out of a 1987 nuclear arms control pact over alleged Russian violations.
Putin said he hoped the United States wouldn’t follow up by positioning intermediate-range missiles in Europe. Such a move would be a repeat of a Cold War showdown in the 1980s, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union both deployed intermediate-range missiles on the continent, the Russian leader said.
President Putin said: “I don’t understand why we should put Europe in such a grave danger. I see no reason for that. I would like to repeat that it’s not our choice. We don’t want it.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that the Western military alliance’s members blame Russia for developing a new missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but he doesn’t expect them to beef up nuclear arsenals in Europe in response.
Putin rejected Trump’s claim that Russia has breached the INF treaty, alleging it was the United States that violated the pact.
He charged that U.S. missile defence facilities in Romania hold intermediate-range cruise missiles with just a quick tweak in computer software.
The Russian leader added that he hoped to discuss the issue with Trump in Paris when they both attend Nov. 11 events marking 100 years since Armistice Day.
Russia had also released a statement earlier which condemns the US’ decision to leave the treaty as an “attempt at being the single global superpower”.
Counterpoint
Trump said he planned to pull the U.S. out of the treaty due to the alleged Russia violations and also because China, which wasn’t part of the pact, has intermediate-range missile capability. The US may be considering a withdrawal from this cold war initiative as it feels that the Russians are not abiding by the INF treaty since 2014 and that the Chinese are stockpiling missiles because they are not regulated by this accord. Russia and the US were bound by the INF treaty to halt the mass production of MRBMs but China discreetly developed an arsenal of next-generation missiles which can strike targets across Europe and North America.
Assessment
Our assessment is that President Putin’s statement highlights a real possibility of an impending arms race in Europe. We believe that Russia will use the pretext of US withdraw to ramp up its cyber attack on critical EU installations, citing retaliation. We also feel that Russia may choose to deploy its new-age hypersonic cruise missiles to intimidate European nations and former Soviet states that have aligned with the West.
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