The latest revelations in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at the Saudi Arabian embassy seem to implicate those at the highest echelons of power in the kingdom. Some of President Trump and other western leaders statements have probably left Saudi believing the West is finally turning against them. Jamal Khashoggi..
The latest revelations in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder at the Saudi Arabian embassy seem to implicate those at the highest echelons of power in the kingdom. Some of President Trump’s and other western leaders’ statements have probably left Saudi believing the West is finally turning against them.
Background
Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist who was a permanent resident of the United States and a columnist at the Washington Post, was killed at the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on 2 October. He was a vocal critic of Saudi Arabian crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and his “oppressive regime”. The Saudi government denied any involvement in Khashoggi’s death for two weeks into the investigation, before finally admitting he was killed by several high ranking officials in the embassy. Turkish officials claim they have evidence he was dismembered and tortured before being murdered.
Saudi’s ties with its strongest ally, the United States, have grown strained over the issue. Many political, financial and business leaders have also spoken strongly against the country.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s top producers and exporters of oil. Saudi Arabia’s economy is petroleum-based; Oil actually accounts for 90% of the country’s exports and nearly 75% government revenues. In 2014, a global fall in oil prices caused the Saudi economy to deteriorate. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, Saudi’s economic growth will slow in the next five years, while Saudi foreign reserves are declining at an alarming rate (falling to $593 billion at the end of February 2016, down 17% from the previous year’s level).
Analysis
On 23 Oct, in the first official release on the Khashoggi killing, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accused Saudi officials of a ‘planned political assassination’. He called the killing of Jamal Khashoggi premeditated murder and said it included reconnaissance missions by the kill team long before the event. Erdogan posed several questions to Saudi Arabia, including why it had constantly changed its story about what happened, where Khashoggi’s remains were, and exactly who was involved in the assassination. He said that Turkey didn’t doubt King Salman’s credibility, but demanded a full, independent investigation and that the trial of the accused be held in Turkey.
A few hours later, Khashoggi’s remains were discovered in the garden of the Saudi consul general’s house. Sources revealed the 59-year-old was “cut up” and “disfigured” after being killed in Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul on October 2. It was also reported that the head of the “kill squad” made four calls to Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s secretary the afternoon that Khashoggi was murdered, contradicting the Saudi narrative of an accidental death by a rogue agent that the prince knew nothing about. The desecration of Khashoggi’s body is in complete violation of Sharia law, observed by both Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, in Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince MBS summoned Khashoggi’s sons to the royal palace to offer “condolences”, then made a quick stop at the Future Investment Initiative, also known as Davos in the Desert. In spite of many western government and business leaders dropping out of the conference in response to the Khashoggi killing, MBS says he was satisfied by the turnout. In his words, “Great, more people, more money.”
On 24 October, Saudi officials admit that a body double was part of an operation aimed at extracting journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul for questioning at a “safe house”. They say when the journalist tried shouting for help, an agent put him into a chokehold to keep him quiet, but inadvertently killed him instead. No official could account for Turkish claims that Khashoggi’s body was dismembered with a bone saw inside the building.
Later that day, the United States said that 21 Saudis will have their US visas revoked or be made ineligible for US visas over the killing of Khashoggi. US President Donald Trump also suggested for the first time that Mohammed bin Salman might have taken part in the operation to assassinate Khashoggi. President Trump is the first American president to have taken a vocal stand against Saudi human rights violations. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump was asked about the powerful crown prince’s possible involvement in the murder.
“Well, the prince is running things over there. He’s running things and so if anybody were going to be, it would be him,” the president responded. Trump has previously said he believed bin Salman’s denials of playing a role in Khashoggi’s murder.
Assessment
Our assessment is that at this time, Saudi perhaps feels isolated from the West. Riyadh will also be worried that there will be dissent back home. If the Saudi government does not bow to international pressure, we could see infighting between the princes, perhaps in the form of a claim made by Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz or former crown prince Muhammed bin Nayef.
Given Saudi’s influence over the region, the outcome of this case will go a long way in defining human rights in Saudi Arabia and other neighbouring states. We believe that what happens in Saudi will impact the rest of the Sunni Muslim world.
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