Two Koreas agree to push ahead with the road, rail links despite the threat of US and UN sanctions as per UN Security Council resolutions on Pyongyang. The Korean peninsula was divided post World War II in 1945. In 1950, North Korea, supported by China and Russia, invaded South Korea…
The two Koreas agree to push ahead with the road, rail links despite the threat of US and UN sanctions as per UN Security Council resolutions on Pyongyang.
Background
The Korean peninsula was divided post World War II in 1945. In 1950, North Korea, supported by China and Russia, invaded South Korea. The United Nations and US forces intervened on behalf of the South and the invading army was driven out during the Korean War. The two nations signed an armistice in 1953, however, there has been no peace treaty and they are technically still at war.
US President Donald Trump had earlier taken an aggressive stance while countering North Korea. Both Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump were locked in an extended war of words in 2017, with both threatening wars.In 2018, the tide turned in the ties between the US and North Korea. It began with the North Korean leader announcing that he was willing to enter into diplomatic discussions with South Korea. Since then, the relationship between South Korea and North Korea has exponentially improved. North Korea sent across a delegation to participate in the Winter Olympics held in Seoul. In March 2018, a South Korean delegation headed to North Korea to partake in historic talks to ease the tensions that have built up in the Korean peninsula.
Analysis
North and South Korea agreed to press ahead with plans to establish road and rail links, pledging to hold a ground-breaking ceremony on the project in late November or early December.
The plan comes despite sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and it is unclear how far or how fast the project can proceed without violating those sanctions, which Seoul has vowed to respect.
It also comes amid some concerns in Washington about the enthusiasm with which South Korean President Moon Jae-in has embraced North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, despite the fact that North Korea has so far taken no concrete steps to disarm. Plans to establish road and rail links were a key part of the agreement reached between Moon and Kim when they first met at the border village of Panmunjom in April.
The commitment to move ahead on the transport links was announced after high-level talks on Monday between the two sides, at which they also agreed to hold a series of discussions on other areas of cooperation in coming weeks.
Talks are planned this month and next about increasing military engagement to reduce the threat of conventional warfare; about a joint bid to host the 2032 Summer Olympics and about stepping up contacts between families divided by the 1950-53 Korean War.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met Kim last week and came away saying that the leaders of North Korea and the United States both believed they could make “substantive progress” at a second summit meeting. However, no date for that summit has yet been set, with President Trump saying it could only happen after the Nov. 6 midterm elections.
The United States has repeatedly insisted that sanctions will be lifted only after North Korea completely and verifiably dismantles its nuclear weapons program. Moon’s government takes a different view, preferring a phased process in which both Pyongyang and Washington take gradual steps together.
Counterpoint
South Korea’s decision to go ahead with the economic cooperation program with Pyongyang will visibly strain its relationship with Washington. Secretary of State Pompeo has reiterated that the US will not lift sanctions without concrete de-nuclearization steps taken by North Korea. Additionally, Seoul’s proposed cooperation on road-and-rail links is in violation of UN Security Council resolutions no. 1718 (2006), 1874 (2009), 2087 (January 2013), 2094 (March 2013), 2270 (March 2016), 2321 (November 2016), 2371 (August 2017), and 2375 (September 2017).
Assessment
Our assessment is that the South Korean president is trying to capitalize on the goodwill that arose during the Olympics. We believe that the increased camaraderie displayed by the North Koreans and Kim Jong Un is an attempt to end the sanctions imposed on the region through a diplomatic solution. South Korea and North Korea have shared history and culture and two regions can begin the first step in the normalization process.
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