Syrian and Russian warplanes launched dozens of airstrikes on Syria’s northern province of Idlib, intensifying pressure on the country’s last rebel stronghold after crisis talks yielded no progress. The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011. It began during the Arab Spring protests and due to resentment towards the government of…
Syrian and Russian warplanes launched dozens of airstrikes on Syria’s northern province of Idlib, intensifying pressure on the country’s last rebel stronghold after crisis talks yielded no progress.
Background
The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011. It began during the Arab Spring protests and due to resentment towards the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The war is being fought by several factions: the Syrian government and its allies, a loose alliance of Sunni Arab rebel groups (including the Free Syrian Army), the majority-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), with a number of countries in the region and beyond being either directly involved, or rendering support to one or another faction.
Idlib is a city in north-western Syria, 59 Kms southwest of Aleppo. It’s home to some 2.9 million people, including a million children. After seven years of fighting, 400,000 people are dead which has led to more than half the population being driven out of their homes. Idlib, a haven for rebels and their families, have been evacuated out of areas reclaimed by the government. However, there is no place for them to move within Syria if they are to abandon the province now.
Analysis
At least seven civilians were dead after at least 80 airstrikes around the province’s southern edge, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. It said the violence was the “most intense” in weeks, with helicopters also dropping barrel bombs packed with shrapnel.
Pro-government forces have massed on the edges of Idlib, wedged into Syria’s northwest along the Turkish border. Syrian and Russian officials — key allies in Syria’s long conflict — appear to be preparing for an all-out assault to retake the area for good.
But there are deep fears that an attempt to reclaim Idlib could touch off major bloodshed and a humanitarian crisis among the area’s 3 million civilians, half of them displaced from elsewhere in Syria.
Last week, President Trump has issued a stern warning to Syria and Russia against using excessive force on the last rebel-held stronghold. Read more about our analysis about President Trump’s warning here.
At a meeting in Tehran on Friday, the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey failed to agree on a cease-fire to halt the violence. Although on different sides of the war, Turkey and Russia share an interest in preventing the situation from unraveling.
Turkey worries the violence could send hundreds of thousands of fleeing civilians to its border. Russia is wary of being drawn deeper into a bloody battle as it tells international partners that Syria is stabilizing and open for reconstruction.
The Observatory said on Saturday that close to 2,000 people were already on the move from areas being bombed, heading deeper into Idlib province.
Al-Qaeda-linked rebels, known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, control more than half of Idlib, and much of the Russian and Syrian government rhetoric has focused on a need to defeat the group.
It is also home to a Turkey-backed coalition known as the National Liberation Front, as well as civilians who have left their previous homes instead of agreeing to “reconciliation” agreements with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Many fear conscription or arrest.
The state-run Al-Ikhbariya TV said Saturday that the Syrian government was retaliating against rebel shelling on a government-held area south of Idlib. The barrage late Friday in Mhradah killed at least nine civilians.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Assad’s forces will shortly retake Idlib as the rebels have been cornered in this civil war. Russia’s calculated air strikes coupled with Iranian ground support have enabled Syrian Governments Forces to retake key cities in the past year. We feel that president Trump is right about an impending humanitarian crisis. We believe that the State department may issue an ultimatum against excessive use of force in Idlib in the coming days.
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