Washington will not pursue sanctions on India if it decides to purchase of a missile defence system from Russia. India faced the risk of secondary U.S. sanctions for its planned acquisition of the S-400 system which it says it needs as a deterrent to China. India has long maintained cordial relations…
Washington will not pursue sanctions on India if it decides to purchase of a missile defence system from Russia.
India faced the risk of secondary U.S. sanctions for its planned acquisition of the S-400 system which it says it needs as a deterrent to China.
Background
India has long maintained cordial relations with Russia since Independence through a non-aligned strategy. This neutral approach has been observed in contemporary times when India abstained from voting against Russia on the Crimean issue, while Russia supported India’s bid to join the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG). Diplomatic ties are secondary to Russia’s pivotal role in India’s defence sector – with the former providing 70% of Indian arms in the past 5 years.
India had recently signed a $5.5 billion deal with Russia to acquire 5 S-400 Surface to Air Missiles (SAM). The S-400 (NATO call name SA 21 “Growler”) is an impeccable piece of defence machinery with multifunction radars, anti-aircraft missile systems and launchers more efficient than the American Patriot system. Three types of missile deployment provide for layered defence. The Indian forces are operating at 3/4th of their potential, making the deal imperative for defence against hostile neighbours.
Russia, like Iran and North Korea, are under heavy sanctions imposed by the Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAASTA) of USA. By extension, any country engaging in trade with the Russian intelligence or defence sectors may have sanctions imposed on them. As such there is US coercion to drop the deal as it will deter access to advance US technology. Moreover, it puts India’s cooperation with the US to the test.
Read more about India’s S-400 deal here.
Analysis
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Thursday the United States was not seeking to punish India for its proposed purchase of a missile defence system from Russia. “Our effort here is not to penalize a great strategic partner like India,” Pompeo told reporters following top-level talks with Indian leaders to advance political and security ties between the two democracies. He said Washington was also working with New Delhi to tackle the issue of India’s oil imports from Iran, which face U.S. sanctions.
The United States is pushing all countries to halt oil imports from Iran after President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 deal between Iran and six world powers in May, and ordered a re-imposition of sanctions on it.
The russo-indian defence has been bolstered by joint military exercises alongside technical assistance for the development of missiles. The Solid Fuel Ducted Ramjet missile testing recently saw only partial success.
In 2018, Defence Minister Nirmala Seetaram expressed India’s need for a liberal approach to sharing Russian technology as there are considerable delays in acquiring replacements for critical Russian-made infrastructure. Some sanctions came in effect on Aug. 6 and the rest, notably in the petroleum sector, on Nov. 4. Trump has warned that anyone trading with Iran would not do business with the United States.
Counterpoint
On the other hand, India seems to be turning to the West for state-of-the-art weaponry. In the acquisition of rifles for the Indian military, for example, an Indian team is set to visit US, Israeli and South Korean arms manufacturers, but Russia did not make the cut.
India is actively considering more Western-built weapons platforms to end its reliance on Russia as a single-source supplier. A prime example of this is the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition in which India chose the French Dassault Rafale despite Russia offering the latest Sukhoi SU-35. The Su-35 would be a logical option for India as it would be the successor to the Su-30MKI currently in service with the Indian Air Force. This means that Indian pilots would not be required to train on a new aircraft platform. Additionally, this would have increased inter-operability of squadrons due to similar aircraft systems.
India’s pursuit of the S-400 is a purely strategic move considering its two aggressive neighbours and their military capabilities. It is apparent that India has multiple sources for small arms and munitions, but the efficacy of the S-400 makes this deal particularly important.
Assessment
Our assessment is that India should be able to get a full wavier from the sanctions to purchase the missile system from Russia. We believe that as Japan, a NATO ally, did not get any waivers from Russian or Iranian sanctions, it will be difficult for India to get a blanket waiver. However, we feel that India will be able to purchase the S-400 system on certain technical conditions from Washington.
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