Will the Wall be built?

President Donald Trump declared a state of National Emergency at the southern border on February 18, 2019 in order to curb the crossing of illegal immigrants from Mexico into the USA. President Trump’s most polarizing and widely reported proposals were about immigration and border security during his electoral campaign Make America…

President Donald Trump declared a state of National Emergency at the southern border on February 18, 2019 in order to curb the crossing of illegal immigrants from Mexico into the USA.

Background

President Trump’s most polarizing and widely reported proposals were about immigration and border security during his electoral campaign Make America Great Again (MAGA). He proposed the deportation of all illegal immigrants, the construction of a substantial wall along the United States-Mexico border at Mexican expense and a temporary ban of foreign Muslims entering the United States.

Unable to get Mexicans to pay, Trump turned towards Congress to raise funds in order to build the Wall. Trump shut down the government for a period of 35 days starting from December 22, 2018 as he was unable to get the requisite approvals from the Congress, marking the longest federal shutdown in U.S history.

A second impasse was averted by means of a bill funding $1.375 billion towards the building of the Wall. The bill although approved with an overwhelming majority in the Senate did not satisfy the required apportionment of $5.5 billion to build a barrier 230 miles long.

President Trump signed the bill on February 15, 2019 and also declared a state of National Emergency at the Southern border.

 Analysis

The declaration of the National Emergency received criticism from both the Republicans and Democrats. The attempt to circumvent Congress and redirect tax payers’ money to build the Wall has been beset with political and legal challenges.

The move has been criticized as Trump’s comments were proof enough not to declare a National Emergency. “I could do the wall over a longer period of time,” Trump said during his speech, continuing with “I didn’t need to do this, but I’d rather do it much faster.”

Trump said that he expected to be sued during the declaration, still attempting to justify his executive action in the hope of fulfilling his campaign promise. The declaration has been met with multiple lawsuits. On Sunday, California’s Attorney General said that he is working with generals from six other states in order to file suits against the White House.

Democrats are in the process of preparing a joint resolution in order to repeal the emergency and are expecting some Republicans to come to their aid in repealing it. Republicans have been split on the issue, with some fully backing the declaration while others cautioning restraint.

White House senior policy advisor Stephen Miller suggested that President Trump could veto such a resolution if it was passed. “He’s going to protect his national emergency declaration, guaranteed,” he said, insisting that thousands of miles of new barrier would have been built by 2020.

Assessment

Our assessment is that it is too early to predict if the wall could be built by diversion of funds during a National Emergency. A number of other projects could be jeopardized by this aberration. The declaration has been sued in a court of law and it will be the Supreme Court’s decision at the end. We feel that this move could have unprecedented consequences, as it would embolden future Presidents to circumvent the Congress if need be.

 

Image Courtesy: © Tomas Castelazo, www.tomascastelazo.com / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Border_Wall_at_Tijuana_and_San_Diego_Border.jpg), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode


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