France will stay ‘military engaged’ in Middle East

French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France would continue to remain ‘militarily engaged’ in the Middle East region through 2019. This comes at a time when the US is preparing to withdraw its troops from Syria after claiming defeat of ISIS. The United States…

French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France would continue to remain ‘militarily engaged’ in the Middle East region through 2019. This comes at a time when the US is preparing to withdraw its troops from Syria after claiming defeat of ISIS.

Background

The United States began surveillance missions on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) positions in Syria in September 2014.  The American-led intervention during the course of the Syrian Civil War includes the militaries of the United Kingdom, France, Jordan, Turkey, Canada, Australia and more. They are called the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and came together to discuss concerted actions against ISIL and Nusra Front. U.S. President Barack Obama announced ″comprehensive″ strategies to counter ISIL that ″in concert with coalition partners will defeat ISIL and deny them safe haven″. The Global Coalition agreed on strategies including cutting off ISIL’s financing and funding and exposing ISIL’s true nature. As of March 2015, the U.S.-led coalition comprised over sixty countries, that contributed in various ways to the effort.

Analysis

French President Emmanuel Macron said that France would continue to remain “militarily engaged” in the Middle East region throughout the entire year, noting the recent attack by the Islamic State (ISIS) in northern Syria that claimed 16 lives. The US is getting ready to withdraw its troops from Syria, Macron underlined that France would retain its military forces in Syria and Iraq. “The announced withdrawal of our American ally should not deflect us from our strategic objective to eradicate Daesh,” Macron said while referring ISIS to its Arabic name.

On January 16th, 16 people, including two US service members and two American civilians were killed in a suicide attack in Manbij in northern Syria. The ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attack. “We are staying invested to participate in the stabilisation of the region,” Macron said, adding: “Any rush to withdraw would be a mistake.” Macron also expressed condolences for “our four American friends killed on Syrian soil” in a bomb blast claimed by the Islamic State group.

Macron has criticised US President Donald Trump for announcing in December that he would begin withdrawing the approximately 2,000 US troops now in Syria. Macron said he “deeply regretted the decision”, adding that “an ally must be reliable”. Macron persuaded the U.S. leader that Washington should stay engaged by citing the threat of Iran in the region.

“The military campaign against Islamic State continues,” French army spokesman Patrik Steiger said. “At this stage, the announcement by the American president has no impact on France’s ongoing participation (in the coalition).” “It shows that we can have different priorities and that we must count on ourselves first,” Europe Minister Nathalie Loiseau said.

“For now, of course we are staying in Syria because the fight against Islamic State is essential.” French Defense Minister Florence Parly acknowledged on Twitter that the militant group had been weakened and lost some 90 per cent of its territory, but said the battle was not over. “Islamic State has not been wiped from the map nor have its roots. The last pockets of this terrorist organization must be defeated militarily once and for all,” she said. French officials are scrambling to find out from U.S. agencies exactly what Trump’s announcement means.

Former US intelligence officer Michael Pregent, now an adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute, said that the Islamic State group remains a threat in the region despite Washington’s repeated insistence that the group has been destroyed. “The international coalition along with the United States has to recognise that ISIS isn’t defeated,” Pregent said, referring to the Islamic State group. He noted that al Qaeda was beaten back in Iraq after the creation of a Sunni Arab force to counter the Sunni extremists of al Qaeda, something that came to be known as the “Sunni Awakening”.

“We haven’t done that in Syria,” Pregent said, predicting that the “cycle of violence” would continue until the West gets its policy right. It is not too late to build a broad Sunni counterforce in Syria, he said, but for now, the members of the coalition lack the “political resolve”.

France is a leading member of the U.S.-led coalition fighting militants in Syria and Iraq and has about 1,100 troops including special forces based in the north of the country, deployed alongside local Kurdish and Arab forces.

Assessment

Our assessment is that coalition partners except the US have recognized that ISIL has not yet been defeated and they are likely to continue being invested in the stabilisation of the Syrian region. It is also likely that the US allies apprehend Iran’s expansion into Syria and may like to prevent it.