Donald Trump has warned its NATO ally to beware of the devastating wrath of US economic pressure if Turkey dares to attack its Kurdish allies left behind after it withdraws its troops from Syria. The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011. It began during the Arab Spring protests and due to…
Donald Trump has warned its NATO ally to beware of the devastating wrath of US economic pressure if Turkey dares to attack its Kurdish allies left behind after it withdraws its troops from Syria.
Background
The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011. It began during the Arab Spring protests and due to resentment towards the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The war is being fought by several factions: the Syrian government and its allies, a loose alliance of Sunni Arab rebel groups (including the Free Syrian Army), the majority-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), with a number of countries in the region and beyond – being either directly involved, or rendering support to one or another faction.
In January 2019, US President Donald Trump announced that American forces will begin withdrawing from Syria after a successful campaign to eradicate the region of ISIS. The US is the only major world power that actively supports the Kurdish Peshmerga militia, known as the YPG.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to crush the YPG “very quickly”. The nation believes that the group has links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – a banned militant group. It has also stated that this militia is a danger for its security.
Analysis
The US military, Trump promised, will still use an “existing nearby base,” apparently in Iraq, to attack the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) militants if the terrorist organization re-emerges in Syria. Using his typical mode of communication, Twitter, to reaffirm the withdrawal of American troops from the ground, the US president warned Ankara against seeing this as an opportunity to stage any military campaign against Syrian Kurds. “Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds,” Trump tweeted, urging Ankara to create a “20-mile safe zone.” At the same time, Trump urged the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which the US trained and armed for years, not to “provoke” Turkey.
In an apparent gesture to save face, following a questionable outcome of four years of uninvited American presence in Syria and an abrupt withdrawal, Trump has once-again credited the US military for destroying IS, disregarding the fact that most of the country was liberated from terrorists by the Syrian army, with the help of the Russian military.
“Russia, Iran and Syria have been the biggest beneficiaries of the long-term US policy of destroying ISIS in Syria – natural enemies. We also benefit but it is now time to bring our troops back home. Stop the ENDLESS WARS!” Trump tweeted.
Trump made the decision to withdraw some 2,000 American troops from Syria last month, amid consultations with the Turkish military over their planned operations in Syria. National Security Advisor John Bolton even said that US forces will not leave Syria until Turkey guarantees the safety of the US-backed Kurdish militias.
Turkey, however, remains firmly committed to removing what they call a Kurdish “terrorist” threat coming from the Euphrates River valley, and is actively preparing for a possible cross-border operation. “Our preparation continues intensely,” the Turkish defence minister said.
American-Turkish relations are far from tranquil and have frayed in the years following the July 2016 coup attempt against Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which Ankara believes was masterminded by Fethullah Gulen, who is living in exile in Pennsylvania. Washington and Ankara also sparred over the fate of American Presbyterian minister Andrew Brunson, convicted in Turkey of aiding terrorism, and who Ankara was forced to extradite after Trump exerted unprecedented economic pressure.
The bilateral relations have been further aggravated by US threats to halt the transfer of military tech to its NATO ally, including the fifth generation F-35 stealth fighter jets, and even to impose sanctions over Turkey’s commitment to purchase Russian S-400 air defence systems, a diversification of weapons suppliers that enhances its national security.
Assessment
Our assessment is that US interest is best served in the region by working together with its NATO allies and also by ensuring that Turkey’s security concerns in north east of Syria are addressed. We also believe that Trump is right in stating that Turkey must not mistreat the Kurds and other Syrian Democratic Forces with whom the US has fought the ISIS.
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