British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s visit to Tehran comes amidst the twin tensions between the countries over UK dual national, Nazanin Ratcliffe who is detained in Iran, and the war in Yemen. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, travelled to Iran on 17 March 2016…
British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s visit to Tehran is taking place amidst the twin tensions that exist between the countries over UK dual national, Nazanin Ratcliffe who is detained in Iran, and the war in Yemen.
Background
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager with the Thomson Reuters Foundation, travelled to Iran on 17th March 2016 to visit her family with her 22-month-old daughter Gabriella. On 3rd April 2016, members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard arrested her at the Imam Khomeini Airport as she and daughter were about to board a flight back to the UK. The exact reason for her arrest is unclear, though according to Amnesty International it is believed that it is related to the 2014 imprisonment of several Iranian technology news website employees. Zaghari-Ratcliffe used to work for the international charity the BBC World Service Trust which provided training courses to Iranian citizen journalists and bloggers, some of whom were convicted in 2014 and sentenced to up to 11 years in jail for participating in the foreign training course.
The Yemeni Civil War is an ongoing conflict that began in 2015 between two factions: the then-incumbent Yemeni government, led by Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, and the Houthi militia, along with their supporters and allies. The Houthis have long been accused of being proxies for Iran since they both follow Shia Islam. The United States and Saudi Arabia have alleged that the Houthis receive weapons and training from Iran.
Analysis
British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt visited Tehran for a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, veteran foreign minister Javad Zarif. He was also granted a rare meeting with the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, a powerful figure in Iran’s military. Hunt’s visit to Tehran, is the first visit by a foreign minister since the US re-imposed sanctions on oil.
After the United States withdrew from the deal to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and re-imposed sanctions, Iran has been desperate to protect its trade with Europe. Britain and the EU have promised to help but are struggling to find ways of encouraging European firms to continue doing business with Iran. Many firms are pulling out for fear of US fines and loss of trade. There is a plan for the EU to set up a special financial system that would allow Iran to barter its oil exports in a way that could avoid US sanctions. Foreign Minister Zarif said “We need to see some action. We welcome the political commitment from the UK and (other European countries) but we believe that political commitment needs to be followed by action.”
Jeremy Hunt warned and pushed for the release of British Iranian national, Nazanin Zaghari – Ratcliffe, who has been detained by the regime. He said “If Iran has a policy of detaining dual nationals as a tool of diplomatic leverage then there will be consequences for Iran. We will not let them get away with it scot-free. They have to understand this is not a sustainable situation.” He had pressed to go to the prison to see Zaghari-Ratcliffe, but was refused.
He urged Iran to encourage the Houthis to come to the UN-backed talks in Stockholm. Iran plays a key role as the international backer of the Houthi rebels, providing them with money and missiles. Iran has denied arming the Houthis and attacked the West, including the UK, for selling weapons to the Saudi-led coalition which has been bombing Yemen for the last three years.
Hunt said that the Middle East is now a ‘tinderbox’. “We have the issue of sanctions. There is the regional rivalry between Saudi and Iran that is getting more and more dangerous, leading to proxy wars. There is the need for recognition of Israel’s borders. “Put this together, and what you have is the first world war risk – that any small event can trigger a chain of events with utterly catastrophic consequences. It is still worth talking to Iran to see if there is a way through and to prevent the huge rivalry between Saudi and Iran turning into another version of the Iran-Iraq war. That is what all countries that have influence have to be thinking about.”
Hunt also said he disagreed with the US on the nuclear deal, saying Washington was entitled to change its mind “but it does not mean that their allies automatically have to change their minds”.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Iran is one of the more important civilisations in the world and like Russia, is keen to have a respectful place in the comity of great nations. We feel that Iranian hardliners who do not wish to improve relations with the UK are most likely using the detained British Iranian dual national deliberately to sour diplomatic relations. We believe that the hardliners would prefer to project their country’s power through their military prowess and their ability to intervene in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
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