Britain could be on course to reverse its biggest political decision in four decades by possibly holding a second referendum to overturn the 2016 decision to leave the union. However, Mrs. May, who insists there will be no new vote, was sticking to her Brexit plan with the apparent support of two pro-Brexit cabinet…
Britain could be on course to reverse its biggest political decision in four decades by possibly holding a second referendum to overturn the 2016 decision to leave the union.
However, Mrs May, who insists there will be no new vote, was sticking to her Brexit plan with the apparent support of two pro-Brexit cabinet ministers.
Background
On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.
Over the past year, leaders of member nations have expressed their dismay over Britain leaving the body. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are among those who have been vocal about their apprehension regarding the events that are unfolding.
In December 2017, UK Prime Minister Theresa May struck a last-minute deal with the EU regarding key issues. According to this deal, there will be no “hard border” in Ireland. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU would also be protected in accordance with the deal.
The UK is officially set to leave the EU in March 2019.
Analysis
The UK could be on verge of reversing its biggest and, to them, most disastrous, decision in four decades. Public opinion in the UK is largely favouring holding another referendum on Brexit.
The path toward a second plebiscite has always seemed impossibly treacherous. On Friday, Mrs May, who insists there will be no new vote, was sticking to her Brexit plan with the apparent support of two pro-Brexit cabinet ministers, Michael Gove, the environment secretary, and Liam Fox, the international trade secretary. She also welcomed Amber Rudd, the former home secretary, back into the cabinet as work and pensions secretary, and appointed a little-known figure, Stephen Barclay, as Brexit secretary. Mrs May’s opponents have so far failed to muster the support of the 48 Conservative Party lawmakers needed to force a confidence vote in her leadership.
However, the political chaos of recent days — a swirl of cabinet resignations and calls for Mrs May to stand aside — has put another vote squarely on the table. That is because Mrs May’s plan, which would keep some close economic ties to the European Union, now looks unlikely to gain approval in Parliament. This development would seem to leave a second referendum as the most promising among a limited number of escape routes to avoid a chaotic, disorderly, no-deal departure.
However, according to several surveys, public opinion is finally shifting away from Brexit, and proponents of a rethink sense an opportunity. They want a plebiscite on the terms of an exit deal, with the option to remain, calling it a “People’s Vote”.
Counterpoint
There are plenty of obstacles, of course. Right now, there is no majority in Parliament for a second vote. The Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is not sympathetic. Holding another vote would almost certainly depend on the European Union granting Britain an extension on the current March 29 date for the country’s exit. And precisely what question, or questions, would be asked would provoke endless bickering.
There are also good political arguments against it. The last vote was close — 52 per cent to 48 per cent — and another one would in all likelihood be so, too. That risks a polarizing and angry referendum campaign with an outcome that would be no more definitive than the first vote.
Assessment
Our assessment is that as Britain was able to secure a deal regarding key issues in December 2017, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit seems unlikely in the status quo. However, the directionless negotiations between the government and the lackluster leadership from the Prime Minister are leaving a cloud of doubt on any potential Brexit deal. We believe that British politics will have a turbulent few weeks from now till the deadline on the 29 March 2019.
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