Two days after US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis set a 30-day deadline for peace negotiations between the warring factions in Yemen, the Saudi Arabia-backed coalition launched a fresh offensive in Yemen, targeting air bases and the Houthi-controlled port with more than 30 air strikes. A Zaydi republican..
Two days after US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis set a 30-day deadline for peace negotiations between the warring factions in Yemen, the Saudi Arabia-backed coalition launched a fresh offensive in Yemen, targeting air bases and the Houthi-controlled port with more than 30 air strikes.
Background
A Zaydi republican general named Ali Abdullah Saleh came to power in Yemen in 1978, after a succession of coups. Saleh ruled Yemen for the next 33 years. He united north and south Yemen in 1990, tilted toward Iraq during the 1991 Kuwait war, and survived a Saudi-backed southern civil war in 1994. He had complicated relations with both Riyadh and Washington, but by the late 1990s was generally aligned with both against al-Qaida.
The Houthis emerged as a Zaydi resistance to Saleh and his corruption in the 1990s led by Hussein al Houthi. They charged Saleh with massive corruption to steal the wealth of the Arab world’s poorest country for his own family. They also criticized Saudi and American backing for the dictator. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 deeply radicalized the Houthi movement. The Houthis adopted the slogan: “God is great, death to the U.S., death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam”.
The conflict in Yemen grew out of a failed political transition that was supposed to bring stability to Yemen following an Arab Spring uprising that forced its longtime authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to hand over power to his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, in 2011.
President Hadi struggled to deal with a variety of problems, including attacks by al-Qaeda, a separatist movement in the south, the continuing loyalty of many military officers to Mr Saleh, as well as corruption, unemployment and food insecurity. The conflict has been between Houthi rebels fighting alongside Saleh’s supporters, against the Hadi government, backed by Saudi Arabia.
For three years, the United States has supported Saudi Arabia in a war against the Houthi movement in Yemen. The war has created the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world and threatens to result in the largest famine in decades. On 30 October, US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis made history by setting a 30-day deadline for peace negotiations.
Analysis
Two days after the U.S call for a cease-fire, the Saudi-led coalition launched a fresh offensive in Yemen. A spokesman for the coalition said its forces attacked the international airport in the capital, Sanaa, and a nearby airbase operated by Houthi rebels. The rebels were using the air base to launch attacks on the kingdom with drones and missiles – said spokesman, Col. Turki al-Maliki, to al-Ekhbariya TV, a Saudi state-owned broadcaster.
The Houthis, through their own television station, confirmed that more than 30 airstrikes had targeted the air base and other areas around the capital. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition appeared to have launched a fresh offensive against the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida, according to Yemeni government sources and local media. Fighting was reported early on 2 November in southern and eastern areas of the city.
The port is a vital gateway for the imports of food, medicines and other essential supplies, as well as much of the humanitarian aid heading to northern Yemen. The assault followed reports this week of the coalition’s sending more than 10,000 reinforcements toward Hodeida via a southwestern coastal route.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are part of a regional coalition seeking to oust the Houthis and restore Yemen’s internationally recognized government led by President Hadi. The United States is supporting the coalition by refuelling its jets, providing intelligence and selling its members arms worth billions of dollars.
The Houthis, who control the capital and much of northern Yemen, have so far shown few signs of weakening in the three-year-long conflict that has become a military stalemate.
Trapped between the warring parties are millions of Yemenis grappling with what the United Nations describes as the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis. This month, the United Nations declared that nearly half the population of Yemen, about 14 million people, are on the brink of famine. More than 3 million have fled their homes, and a cholera epidemic is raging.
Assessment
Our assessment is that the U.S Secretary of Defence’s unexpected call for peace negotiations is a sign of deteriorating U.S-Saudi relations following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. We believe that the attack on the Houthi bases was a strong statement from Saudi Arabia that the loss of U.S support will not coerce the kingdom into abandoning their proxy war in Yemen. The belligerence of this posturing is likely to escalate tensions between the countries, and bodes ill for those hoping for a resolution of the crisis in Yemen.
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