Iranian boats closely shadowed an American warship in the Persian Gulf on Friday, underscoring the potential for renewed maritime hostility between the United States and Iran. The US official withdrew from the JCPOA and re-imposed crippling economic sanctions on Tehran, which has further deteriorated the situation. The United…
Iranian boats closely shadowed an American warship in the Persian Gulf on Friday, underscoring the potential for renewed maritime hostility between the United States and Iran.
The US officially withdrew from the JCPOA and re-imposed crippling economic sanctions on Tehran, which has further deteriorated the situation.
Background
The United States and Iran do not have any formal diplomatic relations or ties. The two nations share an acrimonious relationship. In 1953, the CIA played a key role in orchestrating a coup against Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq. Between 1979 and 1981, a group of Iranian students belonging to the Muslim Student Followers of the Imam’s Line took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The 44 hostages were released after 444 days. In 2002, US President, George W. Bush, described Iran as being part of the “axis of evil.”
On 2 April 2015, the P5+1 and Iran reached a provisional agreement that sought to lift most of the sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear programs extending for at least ten years. When the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran had restricted its sensitive nuclear activities, the UN sanctions were lifted on January 16, 2016.
In May 2018, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and re-imposed economic sanctions on Tehran. President Trump has been openly critical about the Iran deal and has sought to dissuade other members of the JCPOA to withdraw as well. A fresh set of US sanctions are estimated to come into effect in November 2018. Public sentiment in both countries are highly negative of each other and leaders from Tehran and Washington have been trading barbs and criticisms ever since the US withdrew from the JCPOA.
Analysis
Iranian boats closely shadowed an American warship in the Persian Gulf on Friday, underscoring the potential for renewed maritime hostility between the United States and Iran. Two fast attack boats under the command of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps came within 300 yards of the USS Essex during a visit by Gen. Joseph Votel, who commands U.S. forces in the Middle East. A reporter from The Washington Post observed the boats as they sped near the amphibious assault ship, currently the largest U.S. ship in the Gulf.
The incident, which did not appear linked to the general’s visit, illustrates the delicate course the U.S. military must navigate as the Trump administration ratchets up pressure on Tehran and prepares to reimpose punishing sanctions.
The Iranian boats trailed the USS Essex, but U.S. officials said they did not undertake the same level of threatening behaviour Iranian boats have in the past. American reports of harassment by Iran’s naval forces, sometimes resulting in U.S. ships firing warning shots, became common at the end of the Obama administration but dropped off in the months after President Trump took office.
Naval officials said Iranian ships regularly conduct similar manoeuvres around the Essex, often multiple times a week. According to the officials, a total of six Iranian craft — two Cougar-class patrol boats, two Kuch-class patrol boats and two Peykaap-class coastal patrol boats — approached the Essex Amphibious Ready Group on Friday. Military officials in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East are trying to curtail Iran’s military influence without triggering a direct confrontation.
However, the stakes of small encounters have increased as Trump’s top advisers elevate their goal of diminishing Iran’s ability to project military power. So far, the Trump administration has slapped tough economic measures on Iranian affiliates and pulled out of the multinational nuclear deal signed during the Obama administration. On Nov. 4, sanctions are set to be reimposed on Iran’s energy sector. Some critics fear the tougher U.S. stance could reignite open conflict with Iranian-backed militias, similar to what occurred in Iraq after the 2003 invasion.
The USS Essex plays an important role in the U.S. naval presence in the Middle East at a moment when the Pentagon has no aircraft carriers in the region, raising questions about how the U.S. posture will be affected by the administration’s shift toward military competition with China and Russia. The U.S. footprint remains strong across the maritime air and naval forces, especially when considered in combination with allied militaries.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Tehran is looking to cause discomfort to US forces in the Gulf by deliberately shadowing US warships. Iran controls most of the Persian Gulf and is using its geostrategic position to reiterate this advantage. We believe that this is a tactic by Iran as the Iranian Navy cannot engage the massively superior US 5th Fleet in combat.
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