Washington has hardened its stance over Saudi Arabia’s role in journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s apparent death as new details emerged linking his disappearance to people close to the kingdom’s crown prince. Khashoggi disappeared in the Saudi Consulate in Turkey on 2 October, and have…
Washington has hardened its stance over Saudi Arabia’s role in journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s apparent death as new details emerged linking his disappearance to people close to the kingdom’s crown prince. Khashoggi disappeared in the Saudi Consulate in Turkey on 2 October, and have compelling evidence that he was murdered by senior Saudi Arabian officials.
Background
Jamal Khashoggi is one of the Arab world’s most prominent journalists and commentators. He has been living in self-imposed exile in the United States for the past year. Mr Khashoggi was part of the Saudi elite, close to members of the royal family, and former adviser to a Saudi intelligence chief who became ambassador to Britain and America. Khashoggi was a critic of the crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, or MBS. MBS has been known for reforms he has pushed to make Saudi Arabia appear more “stable and progressive” to draw investors into the Saudi tech industry. He has plans to reorient the Saudi economy away from oil and towards technology, but also has a reputation for silencing critics and dissidents.
Khashoggi authored a regular column for the Washington Post and was in the inner circle of countless diplomats and journalists, and used his influence to criticise growing repression in Saudi Arabia and to urge an end to the war in Yemen. On 2 October, he disappeared in the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul.
Turkish officials have searched the Saudi embassy, and leaked evidence that Khashoggi was tortured, interrogated, dismembered and murdered inside the consulate, whose walls were allegedly repainted before investigators were allowed entry.
The United States has issued a versatile series of statements, from threatening severe punishment if Khashoggi was killed in the consulate, to speculating that “rogue killers” could be responsible. Saudi Arabia is one of the United States closest allies in the Middle East.
Analysis
On 18 October, United States Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he would join many other political leaders and business executives who are canceling their participation in a major investment forum next week in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Mnuchin made the announcement after consulting with Trump and Pompeo. Hours earlier, finance chiefs from France, Britain and the Netherlands announced that they would not attend the Riyadh conference. The investment forum, called the Future Investment Initiative, is intended to showcase the novel ways in which the kingdom is using its wealth, and importantly, to attract investors into the Saudi tech industry. Nicknamed “Davos in the Desert,” the conference aspires to attract financiers, corporate titans, technology executives, government leaders and media bigwigs. It once boasted a list of attendees that resembled the crowd that converges each year at Davos for the global elite.
Mnuchin is the first member of white house staff to back out of the conference, but he is one of many International leaders to have done so. The International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde, prominent corporate executives, such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Bill Ford of Ford Motor Co.,entrepreneurs like AOL’s Steve Case, Arianna Huffington, and media partners, including CNN, the Financial Times, Fox Network and the New York Times have all backed out as evidence increasingly links senior Saudi officials to the murder of Khashoggi.
A person close to the White House said Saudi officials are considering blaming Khashoggi’s death on Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, the deputy head of Saudi intelligence and a close adviser to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Assiri would be accused of mounting a rogue operation to kill Khashoggi, which would deflect blame from the crown prince.
Trump said the White House expected to have a Saudi account of the Khashoggi case “very soon.”
“And I think we’ll be making a statement, a very strong statement. But, we’re waiting for the results of about three different investigations, and we should be able to get to the bottom fairly soon,” said Trump, apparently referring to inquiries by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law has cultivated a relationship with Mohammed, and has been urging Trump to stand by the Saudis and let them conduct their own investigation.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pulling out of the Future Investment Initiative is a strong indicator that pressure from senators from both parties as well as international pressure on the Trump administration to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for Khashoggi’s death is paying off. We believe that leaks by Turkish officials could provide incontrovertible evidence that it would be impossible for the United States to ignore. Loss of United States support could weaken the Saudi’s position in the region.
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