France has accused Iran’s intelligence services of involvement in a foiled bombing attack that targeted a meeting organised by an Iranian opposition group near Paris in June. French authorities have frozen the financial assets of the Iranian spy ministry and two Iranian nationals in…
France has accused Iran’s intelligence services of involvement in a foiled bombing attack that targeted a meeting organised by an Iranian opposition group near Paris in June. French authorities have frozen the financial assets of the Iranian spy ministry and two Iranian nationals in response.
Background
On June 30, Iranian opposition supporters gathered for a rally in Villepinte, a city outside Paris, organised by the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The NCRI is considered to be the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), a controversial organization founded in 1965.
Expressing a blend of Marxism and Islamism, the MEK supported the overthrow of the Shah and later opposed the clerical leadership led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. During the 1970s, the MEK launched several terrorist attacks against the Shah that continued after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The MEK was eventually forced into exile in France before moving its base to Iraq in 1986 and allying itself with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. The group has since sought to portray itself as a democratic political force but is still viewed as a fringe, cult-like organisation. It has been considered a terrorist organisation by Iran. In 2012, the US removed it from its list of terrorist groups.
Due to the group’s opposition to Iranian clerical leadership, the group has garnered several powerful allies in the West, particularly conservative officials opposed to the Iranian clerical regime. These include associates of US President Donald Trump such as his national security adviser John R. Bolton. One of Trump’s personal lawyers, Rudolph W. Giuliani, and former Republican House speaker Newt Gingrich were present at the June rally.
Analysis
France publicly blamed Iran for orchestrating the foiled bomb plot targeting a rally organized by the NCRI. The “Free Iran 2018 – The Alternative” rally in June was held at a convention centre in Villepinte and attended by about 25,000 people.
When the plot unfolded, Belgian police arrested two Belgian-Iranian citizens accused of attempting to drive to France and carry out the attack. The couple was stopped by special forces and arrested in Woluwe-Saint-Pierre. Police found a “small toiletry bag” in their Mercedes that contained about 500gm of triacetone triperoxide, a homemade explosive called TATP and an “ignition mechanism”.
French diplomatic sources this week said the deputy minister and director general of intelligence, Saeid Hashemi Moghadam, had ordered the attack. The Iranian diplomat in Vienna, Assadollah Assadi, was also arrested in Germany in connection with the foiled plot. On Tuesday, France announced it had frozen the assets of Moghadam and Assadi.
“A planned bomb attack was foiled at Villepinte on June 30. This extremely serious attack that was to take place on our territory cannot go without a response,” said the joint statement from France’s interior, economic and foreign affairs ministries.
“Without prejudicing the results of a criminal proceedings taking against the initiators, the perpetrators and the accomplices of this planned attack, France has taken targeted and proportionate preventative measures in the form of adopting national measures to freeze the assets of Mr. Assadollah Assadi and Mr. Saeid Hashemi Moghadam, Iranian nationals, as well as the Internal Security Directorate of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence.”
Foreign affairs minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the foiling of the terror plot “confirms the need for a tough approach in our relations with Iran”.
Iran has vehemently denied the allegations; denouncing it as an attempt to “sabotage Iran’s ancient and long-standing relations with France and other significant European countries.” Iran’s foreign ministry has condemned the arrest of the Iranian diplomat and has called for his immediate release.
The foiled bombing plot also happened to come ahead of Iranian President Hassan Rohani’s rare visit to Europe to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal.
The incident along with France’s will put a further strain in relations between the two countries. France has been a major advocate in defending the nuclear deal that involved Tehran agreeing to curbs on its nuclear programme in exchange for a lifting of economic sanctions. In May 2018, President Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear accord in a break with Europe allies, describing the 2015 agreement as “defective” and reimposed tough sanctions on the country that will go into effect in November.
France has previously warned Tehran to expect a tough response to the foiled terror attack. At the UN General Assembly, French President Emmanuel Macron and Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian discussed the issue with their Iranian counterparts.
The newly hardened relations between France and Iran could have wider implications. Iran will look to Europe to save the 2015 nuclear deal in light of fresh sanctions by the US that are expected to hurt the Iranian economy. Tehran has called for talks with Paris to clear up the “misunderstanding”.
Assessment
Our assessment is that France’s stern response to the foiled attack suggests that it is open to holding Iran accountable for hostile behaviour and actions, without necessarily severing the Iran nuclear deal. However, Paris’ stance on defending the Iran nuclear deal could shift moving forward – in light of its decision to publicly pinpoint Iran as responsible for the attack and freeze assets in response.
Although European countries are still attempting to find a way to avoid withdrawing from the nuclear deal, France’s bearing and actions were taken after the foiled attack could put further pressure on the agreement. We believe this pressure is increased enough, could stand to convince other European allies still supporting Iran deal to possibly back out as well.
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